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we would not actually know how and why either CSAM or heroin or burning plastic is bad and affects victims/drug users without actual studies involving their impact. you cannot just from-first-principles every single possible issue.

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

It is absolutely bananas that one of the most prominent anti-AI experts in America is talking like this. Talking to ChatGPT isn’t like doing heroin or downloading child porn. It will not hurt you and has no ethical valence. It will help you understand the nature of something that is now endemic.

A lot of people's priors are locked in 2024, and haven't adjusted to the reality that, in 2026, you can run an open source model that is approximately Claude Sonnet quality on a $5000 Mac M5 and it uses less than 300 watts to operate. No water. And it's way, way more capable than the 4o they mocked.

weird how i keep hearing “open source models are so capable” and then i look at peoples repos and it’s just claudegen code, everywhere. the *idea* of powerful personal agentic software seems vastly more popular among enthusiasts than the practice of it,

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It’s still a pain in the ass and 100-200/mo is more palatable than dropping 5k+ on a dedicated machine that generates tokens slower and overall slows to a crawl when generating. It’s not yet The Year of Linux on the Desktop.

Exactly. The time will come when it will make sense for end users to run their own LLMs locally, though. Apple is famous for not entering a market until it's ready for a polished, premium product, and then dragging the rest of the market to create the low-cost, commodity alternatives.

“write the next three paragraphs of this essay” tier home AI has been available for the last few years. “create a quicken clone” tier home AI is still a decade out, at current chip availability, i reckon

Yeah, chip availability is the bugaboo. I will be surprised if "current frontier" open source AI is more than 2 years away. And probably more like a year. The limiting factor will be, when do you have enough hardware to run it at your house on an Apple appliance? That might indeed be 10 years away.

It's consistently 3-6 months behind the frontier models thus far. But there's no reason to expect that state of affairs will continue forever. Why do you think the frontier incumbents are so eager to get regulation that stops development/home use for everything except their platforms?