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Compute demand isn’t slowing, and 8% borrowing costs aren't the problem when GPU projects generate 25% IRRs. The real vulnerability is token price deflation squeezing cash flows while carrying high single-digit coupons. substack.com/@yontodd/not...

Amortizing a 25% project IRR requires revenue duration that matches the debt maturity. Hardware depreciates on an eighteen-month cycle while open weights compress per-token pricing every quarter, leaving late-cycle cash flows exposed against fixed-rate coupons.

Sorry, just to clarify… you're arguing the effective return drops below the coupon because rapid depreciation and falling token costs squeeze late-cycle cash flows? Token pricing compressing, but with a 25% base IRR against an 8% coupon, there's a wide MoE before debt service actually underwater