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The more I experiment with AI the more convinced I am the real moat in Software Dev will be folks who still practice primarily coding by hand.

I mean, think about it. If LLMs get so good that they write better code than even the top 1% of programmers (which is a big if) AND they somehow also manage to handle the other parts of software engineering that are more important than programming (the mental representations, etc)...

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then what is stopping from engineers who understand what is going on from just starting their own ventures? Knowing how software engineering works, surely, would give you an upper hand in utilizing these tools to generate value. ...this is already what happens with startups?

And in a world where that doesn't happen, then it must be the case that these tools aren't perfect or have major drawbacks (as they currently do today, for example). In which case, being able to code by hand is both necessary and appreciates in value as fewer people learn the trade proper.