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If this precise object hadn't landed on the moon and instead was Earthbound, would it have burned up entirely in our atmosphere or would at least part of it have reached the ground?

Isn’t it also sort of taking one for the team, otherwise the rock might have hit us..

😄

I think starship will make this dream come true 👀

I think we should have telescopes with video cameras observing the moon continuously, so we can catch the next big impact on video

On a social media site? Yes.

Terrestrial fireballs suggest the model rates are too low. Even Bottke admits it! ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025Icar...

Fresh !

Or 1892 perhaps, if it formed in 2024 and is a 132-year event

Can’t we have one hit Mar-a-Lago?

Would the right way to model a 1 in 132 years chance be a poisson dist with lamda of 1/132? In that case, ≥50% chance of at least one impact this size happening in the past 92 years. After 132 years it gets up to a 63% chance (I think?)

Wow 😳😳😳😳... Very interesting 🤔🤔🤔

i love her

I wonder when earthside surveys of the moon a) started as a regular thing b) got good enough to catch this. The Rosse Six-Foot telescope was built 1845 which seems plenty powerful enough.

is there no data on that paul? just curious

there's no atmosphere or active geology on the moon to disturb the impact site, so we should be good even though we wait.

ahhh...the earth shield