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What counts as a real change? A forecast should say when its own story changes, and stay quiet when it hasn't. Our bar isn't a round number: max(4°F, 1.5 × our blend's recent scatter at that lead). It is tighter for tomorrow than for ten days out, because our errors are.

The Spread

@spreadwx.com

That does not make 113° certain — seven models sit 109–114 with a 5° spread, and NWS runs the heat products, not me. It says the old forecast is no longer the forecast.

7/8/26, 4:56 pm0 reposts0 likes

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