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What counts as a real change? A forecast should say when its own story changes, and stay quiet when it hasn't. Our bar isn't a round number: max(4°F, 1.5 × our blend's recent scatter at that lead). It is tighter for tomorrow than for ten days out, because our errors are.

The Spread

@spreadwx.com

Phoenix, Sat Aug 8. Baseline armed at 100°F. Ten days out: 106° — past that day's 5.2° bar. Six days out: 108°. This morning, one day out: 113°, bar 4.0°. Three fires, one baseline. It escalated rather than re-alerted.

7/8/26, 4:55 pm0 reposts0 likes

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