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Takaichi wins, with Koizumi falling surprisingly short in the lawmaker votes - he didn't even win all of Hayashi's votes. Probably in part down to lawmakers not wanting to ignore the constituency votes, but also a pretty clear sign of a party running scared of populist challenges from its right.

Unless Takaichi as LDP leader can show a side of herself that's never been apparent in her career to date, this is going to be a disaster. Lots of very glum faces among the senior LDP faces up on stage right now; they no doubt suspect that the turkeys just voted for Christmas.

At a guess the next election is going to deliver an absolute mess of a Diet. No opposition party seems to have the capacity to look like a competent government-in-waiting, but the LDP is very likely to lose even more ground nonetheless. It’s a recipe for serious instability.

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