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Rhodium Group
@rhg.com

A standout datapoint from the IMF’s latest WEO forecast was another large upward revision to China’s current account surplus to nearly 4% of GDP per year—or 0.7% of world GDP—through 2030.

Rhodium Group
@rhg.com

The Fund is clearly signaling that large imbalances both within China’s economy and globally are here to stay for the foreseeable future.

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Rhodium Group
@rhg.com

Just two years ago, the WEO showed China’s surplus staying within a contained range of 1.2-1.5% of GDP, but the IMF has adjusted its expectations every 6 months since as China’s exports continued their remarkable surge.