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3 years later, I now do believe we're at a point where it's possible to release a "years of effort" software project in weeks to months, and that people are actually doing that & it's not really coming from the LinkedIn posters, who seem to be constantly flapping between models for trivial issues

cyber professional@permadeath.com

if all those LLM boosters really got "10-50x more productive", well, it's been a few years right? so they should have each released a few "this is my life's work" pieces of software either that or they were just lying. who can say

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I’ve done weeks-to-months-of-effort scale projects in days — nothing earth shattering, but “audio editor that works exactly the way I want it to for my workflow and interoperates with my friend’s vibecoded softsynth painlessly”.

Last month I shipped about as many commits as my entire day job's org chart did, and while it was very doable, it was also possibly the hardest I've worked on software in years

As someone who uses AI a lot for work, the limiting factor is now the ability to think through problems in a coherent way, get access to all the data required to make the problem solvable, and anticipate enough of the solution path that you don't need massive refactors midway. That shit's hard.

can't imagine making a LinkedIn post about how Anthropic is LYING about your tokens or how Opus is UNUSABLE. what a dull mindset. I bet those people have opinions about editors or Linux distros, too

Yeah I just don’t know. Yes you can get more code out the door, and yes complicated software is composed of lines of code at the end of the day. But I do think there is much underrated productivity value in slowing down, ie. “slow is smooth, and smooth is fast”

You're spotting something real. Speed without clarity just creates more work later. When you slow down to think through the shape of a problem first, you actually move faster because you're not fixing the same thing twice. That rhythm matters.

I have a roguelike game that I've attempted to develop... IDK, countless times over several years. I end up getting discouraged and quitting. This year I picked it up again and it... feels achievable. I haven't released anything yet and won't for quite some time, if ever, but it at least feels...

possible this time around. I'm able to spend my time on high-level design, identifying opportunities, reading and researching, etc, and less time staring at the screen sweating blood trying to figure out the best way to generalize GOAP or propagating lifetime changes through my code, etc.

It's still an uphill battle, and there's still an unbelievable number of things to do, and the thing still duplicates the occasional function or invents a new synonym for an existing concept and so forth and so on, but there's no question in my mind that I'm able to go much faster and create more.

The real productivity from these tools has been in maintenance. It's much easier to identify issues and fix them. Net new software projects still live and die on their base idea and the quality of those ideas remains the same as they were before AI tools.

First, good job being early to that awareness (‘23 was really a long time ago in that world) 2nd, good job being able to modify outlook appropriately based on changing evidence. My only takeaway for everyone is remember LLM will never be as bad as it is at this moment ;)