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I want to be very clear about something: for OpenAI to be able to pay the deals it has signed it will have to be ten to fifteen times its current revenue and have raised at least another $150 billion. If it fails, Oracle will run out of money, and not pay its debts.

The only possible way out of this situation is for Oracle to walk away from these Stargate data centers. It cannot afford them. It is already running a negative cash flow of $25 billion dollars and requires at least another $50-100 billion more in debt. It cannot afford to pay without OpenAI’s cash.

Anthropic’s existence only serves to absorb cash that OpenAI needs to survive. It will try and bumrush going public, because Anthropic is in disarray because its models are too compute intensive for the customers it has and it’s too greedy to stop so it needs more money.

Private credit and private equity are going to do a stupid deal or two, but Medallia going to creditors is going to piss off Blackstone shareholders. Oracle needs Blackstone’s money. SoftBank is leveraging OpenAI shares, which is obviously going to be a problem if they start losing value.

so the inevitable question is: when Oracle gets blown up by all this, who gets the licenses for all the existing customers and the database and all that? There's a profitable vendor lock-in-based business underneath it all, about to get caught up in the blast.