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While the US large-cap indices have held up, there are underlying signs of easing risk appetite. We track our own index of returns to the top decile of stocks globally by volatility as a proxy for risk appetite, and it has recently gone below its 200-day average for the first time since last March.

7/10/26, 7:53 pm0 reposts5 likes

Mill Street Research

@millstreetresearch.com

The S&P 500 is also showing signs of slowing momentum -- there is little selling but the rallies are not producing the same upward momentum as measured by the RSI technical indicator. H2 2025 was peak risk appetite/momentum, April/May 2026 was a lesser move, and momentum has eased further since.

Mill Street Research

@millstreetresearch.com

None of this means stocks are going down meaningfully any time soon, but is following a common pattern of gradually fading upside "thrust" (second derivative slowing) that tends to occur later in a market cycle.