Post

A couple days ago The Economist published an article leading with this question: "Has Airbnb reached its peak?" A thread 🧵

"$86bn-worth of bookings made through the platform in the 12 months to June". A 10% increase vs the previous year. However the rate of growth has been decreasing and analysts predict more signs of slowdown in the Q3 2025 earnings report due on Nov 6.

What has caused the decrease in the rate of growth? - Uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump putting off tourists coming to the USA - Policy makers banning Airbnb or implementing heavy restrictions - Competition from other platforms (Booking, Expedia)

How is Airbnb reacted to the growth slowdown? - Growing bookings in new countries (Brazil, India) - Entering new markets (services) - Expanding offerings (hotels) - Testing the water with new ideas (social features)

The core markets (USA, Australia, Britain, Canada & France) represents 50% of nights booked through the platform according to AirDNA. The percentage change year on year in nights booked has been falling in these countries.

To combat this Airbnb has boosted bookings outside of their core markets (Brazil / India) by offering new payment options and increasing marketing efforts.

Airbnb Services was launched in May 2025. This is not the first time Airbnb entered a new market and expanded beyond vacation rentals. Airbnb Experiences launched November 2016 to take on Viator, GetYourGuide and TripAdvisor who offer similar activities and experiences.

What's the difference between Airbnb Experiences and Airbnb Services? Experiences: Outside your Airbnb (e.g. tour guide) Services: Inside your Airbnb (e.g. private chef)

Airbnb still have work to do when it comes to these additional offerings. "Viator, one competitor, offers ten times as many experiences in big cities such as London and New York."

Charging a lot more than your competitors will only alienate existing users. "paid $44 for a one-hour exercise class on Airbnb, only to find that the woman huffing and puffing beside her paid less than half that on Classpass, a booking site for workouts"

The expansion into offering hotel stays suggests Airbnb is becoming more and more like Booking. Booking offer a loyalty program (Genius) to help retain customers. Is it only a matter of time before Airbnb offer something similar?