Post

Leon Simons
@leonsimons.com

🚨BREAKING🚨 The most recent RELATIVE Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) forecast shows we could be facing the strongest El Niño in observed history!! This could lead to dystopian global climate change impacts over the next 1.5 years. No one is prepared.

Leon Simons
@leonsimons.com

RONI is the 3.4 ONI relative to global tropical average sea surface temperature. It can be a more accurate indicator in the near term because ONI is centered on the average of the past 30 years, as the next 15 are unknown. See ONI and RONI from 1950 with 120-month average:

7 reposts47 likes

Zeke Hausfather
@zekehausfather.com

What specifically was I "very wrong about"? If your case is that a strong El Nino is evidence of high climate sensitivity, I suspect you don't understand what El Nino is 😛

Climate News
@climatenews.bsky.social

Oh Zeke. That’s an excellent reply. 😅 How will you ever explain the high surface temperatures after this El Niño? Your usual. Ignore the data. But thanks for trying.

Marsanges
@marsanges.bsky.social

uh huh what does it mean? It makes sense that the Nino gets stronger if the surface see gets hotter right? Like hurricanes got stronger. Would it mean that its effects get stronger too? Like drought in Australia IIRC? Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic? More heat into the atmosphere, onwards to 2.0