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Early individual-level survey data from around the local elections 👇 allows us to start understanding what drove the huge LAB (& CON) losses, which the ward-level data we've seen so far just can't tell us

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

Nationally, this suggests Labour vote disproportionately stayed at home or went to another left party. Massive collapse to Plaid in Wales. Reform turned out an energised base with some switchers on top. Greens also. Lab->Reform exists but not the major part of the picture.

Turnout measured in surveys is notoriously tricky, but I'm surprised that 2024 LDM voters seem similarly demobilized to 2024 CON & LAB voters, and strikingly more so in Wales

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