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Julius Garbe
@juliusgarbe.github.io

3/ We analyzed 18 major Antarctic ice drainage basins using the ice-sheet model #PISM, gradually increasing global mean temperature to map their long-term response. Result: different regions respond very differently to warming.

Julius Garbe
@juliusgarbe.github.io

4/ Some ice basins show relatively gradual ice loss as temperatures rise. Others exhibit tipping behavior: beyond a critical warming level, ice loss accelerates disproportionately and can become irreversible over centuries to millennia.

Julius Garbe
@juliusgarbe.github.io

5/ West Antarctic basins (inc Thwaites & Pine Island) have the lowest thresholds. At today’s ~1.3C, parts of these regions may already be committed to long-term loss. Important: crossing a tipping point ≠ immediate collapse. Ice sheets respond slowly—but once triggered, the process is hard to stop.

Julius Garbe
@juliusgarbe.github.io

6/ But it’s not just West Antarctica. Our results indicate that major ice basins in East Antarctica (e.g. Wilkes) become increasingly vulnerable at sustained warming of ~2–5C. East Antarctica holds much more ice — enough to raise sea levels 10X more than West Antarctica.