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I've been a Linux user for a long time, and have always had a lot of confidence in the longevity of the project, but lately my mindset has shifted -- I asses the probability that it gets out-competed over the next decade as considerably higher than I did 5 years ago.

And this isn’t just because of the current RFL conflict, but that is a part of it. I believe there are multiple credible paths — other old UNIXes, new OS projects, and I believe in the future of the OS-as-a-library pattern.

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There's less of an effervescence around OS designs than it was in the early '00s. People in decisive decissions were very reluctant to move from things like Windows CE and RTOS to Linux for a long long time. I doubt that in the LLM era there will be a huge desire to switch techs - who will teach it?

POSIX is a huge problem. we're somehow stuck in 1980 with the OS interface design and X11 was for a long time a huge blocker in developing user interfaces. Now, I'm afraid, there's fewer engineers skilled enough to define replacements. The language is the most unimportant aspect of the issue.