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We started with a simple question: What happens to genetic diversity when part of a species' habitat suddenly become uninhabitable?

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To answer this, we developed WFmoments, a suite of numerical tools for computing things like π and Fst under arbitrary multi-deme Wright-Fisher models. We complemented this theory with more realistic continuous space SLiM simulations. github.com/moiexpositoalonsolab/wfmoments

What we found surprised us... Species can lose A LOT of habitat without having much effect on genetic diversity. In some scenarios a species can lose 80% of its habitat while retaining 90% of its genetic diversity. But this is just IN THE SHORT TERM.

31/3/26, 4:27 am1 repost2 likes

It can take thousands of generations for the full effects of habitat loss to be felt in terms of genetic diversity. In the long run even small reductions in habitable area can result in large reductions in genetic diversity.

This is BAD. If we monitor the genetic diversity of a species, we might be convinced that it's doing okay, when in fact it may continue to lose genetic diversity for a long time even without losing any more of its habitat!

Everything up to now has assumed that habitat is lost along one edge of the species range (as a rough model for the effects of climate change). If instead we model the kinds of habitat fragmentation that result from land use changes, things get weird.