Post

NEW: There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment. I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged: Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay. www.ft.com/content/a9ea...

72 reposts249 likes

In fact, young men with a college degree now have the same unemployment rate as young men who didn’t go to college, completely erasing the graduate employment premium. Whereas a healthy premium remains for young women.

Nice digging. In a volatile industry like tech, which is male-dominated, we expect ups and downs so it's far too early to predict an AI-pocalypse Self-serving pronouncments like the one from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei over estimate the speed if not size of their impacts Amara's law

What’s going on? At first glance, this looks like a case of the growing masses of male computer science graduates being uniquely exposed to the rapid adoption of generative AI in the tech sector, and finding jobs harder to come by than earlier cohorts.

But, plot twist: The much-discussed contraction in entry-level tech hiring appears to have *reversed* in recent months. In fact, relative to the pre-generative AI era, recent grads have secured coding jobs at the same rate as they’ve found any job, if not slightly higher.

This suggests tech’s hiring contraction of 2023-24 may not have been primarily a story of AI job displacement, but rather the downslope of the sector’s meteoric post-pandemic hiring boom, with recruitment now rebounding from that trough.

The computer revolution in engineering happened 30 years ago with the rise of CNC machines controlled directly by CAD. AI may make certain aspects easier but it won't be as revolutionary as it has been for certain coding and writing tasks.