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📊 GW26 Projections: Pick your Poisson Left: Team ratings from @elevenify.com Right: SpreadEx odds via @robtfpl.com (accessed 19/02) The key disagreement seems to be that Elevenify's model has lower expectations for Liverpool and Ipswich compared to current market odds

20/2/25, 3:31 pm4 reposts34 likes

FPL JJM

@zejoao-jjm.bsky.social

20 Feb 2025

Thanks for your work. Very helpful.

Ian W

@fplstrategic.bsky.social

20 Feb 2025

Deleted comment because numbers were wrong. For LEI, I get the attached predictions (just probabilities, not simulations). Is it fair to say that the bars in your chart are not "solid" in that not all scores in that range are likely/possible?

fpl-apocalypse.bsky.social

@fpl-apocalypse.bsky.social

20 Feb 2025

Thanks for this. Over 50% chance of getting 1 point or less. High unlikely upside though. This comes down to psychology. And position in mini leagues.

Guy McCombe

@guymc.com

20 Feb 2025

Ah yes I get you now. I think all numbers within the bars are technically possible but certainly not equally likely and are distributed like your numbers there

Ian W

@fplstrategic.bsky.social

21 Feb 2025

Yeah, my numbers group everything 6 and over into a single category. Technically a 9-8 loss is possible, but unlikely.