Post

G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com

3.6 points is actually lower than the average historical error on vote margin of second-round polls in Brazil

themonolithmedia.bsky.social@themonolithmedia.bsky.social

Final TSE count: Lula 51.79%, Flávio Bolsonaro 48.21%, turnout 80.8%. That's a 3.6-point win off averages you describe as roughly tied. Do you read it as late movement or a polling miss?

11 reposts176 likes

Juan Ramón Vallarino J.
@jrvj1971.bsky.social

I think the surprise is that Lula managed to gain quite a lot of votes (as of his first round results) while Bolsonaro gained relatively few. (I hadn't been following up on Brazilian polls, so I don't know if Bolsonaro's negative were sky high with people who didn't vote for him in the 1st round).