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I've used each of Cursor and Windsurf as my daily driver IDE for at least 6 weeks each. I've used Claude Code at least several times a week since launch. And the conclusion I keep coming back to, is that Microsoft/Github is going to win the AI-integrated IDE war.

They own the direction of VSCode. They're an established team with more experience in AI-IDEs and no capitalization concerns. They're vertically integrated, and their inference costs are lower than the competition. They have the trust of enterprises, and already have many as customers.

The most recent stable release of VSCode (1.100) is really solid. Copilot chat works better with effectively every model (e.g., Gemini 2.5 Pro works properly, unlike with the competition)—slower sometimes, but with more usable outputs. Tab completion isn't as robust, but UI is better (more explicit)